EuResist prediction system

The EuResist project has developed an integrated computational system for clinical management of antiretroviral drug resistance. The system requests HIV genotype and optionally a set of clinical data and returns a prediction of response to common antiretroviral regimens, helping the HIV specialist to choose the most effective drug combinations for her/his patient.

Nov 2015 update: longer term prediction model

The system has been re-trained and tested in November 2015 on a set of data derived from clinical practice records of more than 66,000 HIV patients collected in Europe. The internal validation showed a prediction accuracy of 73-76% (AUROC) when treatment success was defined as achieving a decrease of at least 2 log or an undetectable HIV RNA load at week 48 after treatment start (it was week 8 in the previous model). read more.

The EuResist system is a linear combination of three statistical learning engines predicting response to treatment. These were designed to work with viral genotype and intended regimen as the only information, as well as with additional measurements (e.g. baseline viral load) and information derived from previous treatments and genotypes to enhance prediction performance. The models combined in the final prediction system include: a Generative Discriminative engine using a Bayesian Network prediction as an additional covariate, a Mixed Effects engine modelling interactions between covariates, and an Evolutionary engine exploiting the genetic barrier to drug resistance as an additional predictor. read more.

EuResist integrated database

The EuResist Integrated DataBase (EIDB) was set up to develop the EuResist prediction system. It is available for scientific purposes upon request. The EIDB includes information about patient demographics, drug therapies, AIDS defining events, CD4 and viral load measurements, and HIV sequences. As of April 2014 it contains the following data:

The EIDB integrates biomedical information from the three founding national databases: ARCA (Italy), AREVIR (Germany), Karolinska Institute (Sweden). The original data set is continuously updated with new data in order to improve the accuracy of the prediction system. Following the EIDB setup, data have also been uploaded from the Laboratoire de Rétrovirologie of CRP-Santé (Luxembourg), the Rega Institute (Leuven - Belgium), the IrsiCaixa Foundation (Barcelona – Spain), the Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (Portugal) and from the DUET study (Tibotec). read more.

Contribution to the database

The service is and will remain free of charge. Like any data-driven engine, availability of new data is crucial for updating and improving the system. You can contribute genotype-response data to the EuResist initiative under the current regulations. (database). The EuResist data set is available upon request for scientific studies related to HIV domain.

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